15 Oct UK national security blind spot for climate threats exposed by new report

A recently published report from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), Chatham House, the University of Exeter, and the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative has exposed a glaring national security blind spot in the UK government’s risk management strategy. 

This comprehensive report warns of the imminent dangers posed by climate change, emphasising the unaddressed risks that threaten the country’s food, energy, and economic security. With evidence pointing to a 45 percent chance of a tipping point occurring within the century, experts stress that the UK remains dangerously underprepared for these cascading and abrupt climate impacts. 

The report’s findings are a wake-up call, urging the UK government to take swift and decisive action.

Escalating threats from climate tipping points

The report highlights climate tipping points as a key concern for the UK’s national security. These tipping points are sudden, irreversible shifts in the climate system, often triggered by exceeding critical temperature thresholds. 

Among the most pressing is the potential collapse of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), a component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The collapse of this oceanic current system could wreak havoc on the UK’s climate, leading to colder winters, hotter summers, and erratic weather patterns that would significantly impair food production and infrastructure resilience.

According to the report, there is up to a 45 percent chance that this tipping point could be triggered within the next few decades, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the UK and its trading partners. Once the SPG collapses, it could further destabilise the AMOC, resulting in widespread disruptions to global food systems and economic stability. 

The IPPR, in partnership with leading academic institutions, stresses that this is not a distant concern but a rapidly evolving threat that demands immediate attention.

UK national risk register lacks comprehensive climate focus

One of the report’s central critiques is that the UK government’s National Risk Register (NRR) does not adequately account for climate threats. The NRR, designed to catalogue the risks facing the country, has been criticised for its limited focus on climate-related security risks. 

While the NRR addresses short-term climate hazards such as heatwaves and flooding, it overlooks long-term, systemic threats like the collapse of the AMOC and other climate tipping points that could fundamentally alter the UK’s climate and economic landscape.

The report draws parallels to the UK’s unpreparedness for the Covid-19 pandemic, highlighting the danger of failing to adequately assess non-traditional security threats, such as climate change. 

Experts emphasise that the government’s limited approach to climate threats echoes the missteps seen in its response to Covid-19, with similarly dire potential consequences.

The impact of climate change on UK food and energy security

The report also stresses the urgent need to address the cascading impacts of climate change on the UK’s food and energy security. As extreme weather events become more frequent, the country’s agricultural systems are already being strained. 

Erratic weather patterns, coupled with rising global temperatures, threaten the stability of food supplies, leading to higher prices and reduced availability.

In the energy sector, climate change has a dual impact. On one hand, extreme weather events like storms and floods can damage infrastructure, causing energy shortages. 

On the other hand, as the UK seeks to transition to renewable energy, the risks posed by climate tipping points could disrupt the production of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power. These cascading risks make it clear that climate change is not merely an environmental issue but a fundamental threat to national security.

A new approach to national security

The report makes several urgent recommendations for the UK government, calling for a complete overhaul of the national security strategy to fully incorporate climate risks. Key among these recommendations is the creation of an independent centre for climate and nature security. 

This body would focus on understanding the complex interactions between climate change, national security, and economic stability, providing early-warning systems for climate tipping points and offering guidance on how to mitigate these risks.

Additionally, the report urges the government to conduct a rapid national security risk assessment specifically focused on climate change. This assessment would identify the most critical threats to national security, enabling policymakers to develop comprehensive strategies to mitigate these risks. 

Without immediate action, the UK could face unmanageable security outcomes, particularly if the SPG or AMOC collapses within the next few decades.

The need for climate-security integration

As the UK government embarks on its strategic defence review and national resilience planning, it must recognize the significant risks posed by climate change. The IPPR report makes it clear that climate threats are not a distant concern but an immediate and pressing danger to the UK’s national security. Ignoring these threats could lead to catastrophic outcomes for the country’s food, energy, and economic stability.

The time for action is now. The government must prioritise climate change within its national security strategy, ensuring that the country is prepared for the cascading and abrupt impacts that climate change will inevitably bring. Failing to do so could leave the UK vulnerable to a range of threats that will profoundly affect the nation’s future.